The UK housing market has remained steady at the start of the spring selling season despite fresh geopolitical uncertainty created by the Iran war, according to the latest House Price Index from Rightmove.

The portal’s latest report shows the number of sales being agreed is only 2% behind the strong market of this time last year and 5% ahead of 2024, suggesting many home movers are continuing with deals despite headlines about potential mortgage rate rises and higher fuel and energy costs.

New listings coming to market during the same period are also holding up, running just 3% behind last year and 7% above 2024 levels, indicating that seller confidence has so far remained resilient as many take advantage of the spring selling window.

Too early

Rightmove says it is still too early to assess the full impact of the geopolitical situation on the housing market. However, it adds that it has not yet seen the same immediate and sharp response from movers that followed previous events such as stamp duty changes or the rapid mortgage rate rises in September 2022.

Average asking prices for newly listed homes rose by 0.8% (£3,023) in March to £371,042, which is a typical seasonal increase following February’s unusually flat month.

Market activity remains stable so far in March, which is encouraging given the new global uncertainty over the last few weeks.”

However, price growth remains limited by the number of homes for sale, which is currently at an eleven-year high for this time of year, giving buyers more choice and forcing sellers to price competitively.

Colleen Babcock (main picture), Property Expert at Rightmove, says: “Market activity remains stable so far in March, which is encouraging given the new global uncertainty over the last few weeks, though it’s too early to tell what may happen later down the line.

“That said, uncertainty is never helpful for market activity, and it’s come at a time when confidence and optimism would usually be building as the spring market gets underway.”

However, she adds: “It’s understandable that many potential buyers may have one eye on news about mortgage rates and wider household costs. For context, the average monthly mortgage payment on a new purchase has increased by around £45 so far, but is still around £70 lower than it would have been at this time last year.”

Industry reacts

Nathan Emerson, CEO of Propertymark:

“Consumers are generally in a far stronger position to purchase a property than they were a year ago, mainly due to several successive base rate cuts and falls in the rate of inflation as well.

“Our member agents have reported an encouraging start to the year, with a sense of resilience when looking at the number of properties being placed for sale and the number of viewings on each available property, too.

“Housing continues to play a driving role in the UK economy, and we are continuing to see progression regarding overall affordability. Across the last twelve months, we have seen a near 15% drop in the magnitude of fall-throughs reported per member branch, helping demonstrate a stronger degree of determination from both buyers and sellers alike to complete on their transaction.”

Adam Horton, Founder of Hortons Estate Agency:

“Spring has arrived with what I’d describe as cautious optimism in the property market. Buyer activity appears to have picked up, but with supply still relatively high, new sellers need to be disciplined on pricing from day one – overpriced stock is simply being overlooked. Price sensitivity among buyers is heightened, and the agents seeing the best results are those having honest conversations about market positioning.

“On the geopolitical situation in the Middle East, we haven’t yet seen any measurable impact on buyer or seller behaviour.  That said, the longer-term effects will depend heavily on the duration of the conflict and its knock-on impact on the cost of living. If it feeds through into higher energy costs or renewed pressure on interest rates, that will be felt in household budgets and ultimately in buying power.

“One area worth watching closely is oil-heated properties. Unlike gas, that market is unregulated and sits outside the government’s price cap, so sellers of those homes could face a meaningful reduction in buyer appetite if running costs become a concern.”

Daniel Lewis, Managing Director at FreeAgent247: 

“The start of March has brought the usual seasonal uplift in seller activity, with more homes coming to market as we move into the spring moving season. While listing prices are edging up modestly, sellers need to remain realistic and price competitively, particularly given the higher levels of available stock compared to recent years. Buyers now have greater choice, which naturally increases the importance of accurate pricing from the outset.

“Although it is still too early to fully assess whether wider geopolitical tensions, such as the Iran war, will influence home-moving decisions, the market has so far shown resilience. Demand remains steady where pricing aligns with buyer expectations, suggesting that well-presented and sensibly priced homes are still attracting strong interest as the spring market gathers momentum.”

Tomer Aboody, director of specialist lender MT Finance: 

“Plenty of stock, in line with the time of year, is keeping prices in check to an extent, which is good news for those who are keen to move.

“The north-south divide illustrates how important affordability is when it comes to people’s ability to move house. In the more expensive south, price growth is more muted as buyers face more of a struggle in raising the necessary deposit and demonstrating enough income to satisfy lenders.

“Everyone has one eye on the Middle East conflict, which could have an impact on inflation and therefore interest rates. Whereas market expectations were for at least one further rate cut in the base rate this year, with inflation likely to spike as a result of the Middle East conflict, on top of existing economic policies, we could even see an interest rate increase. Hopefully, a steady hand on the tiller keeping rates where they are, rather than a knee-jerk reaction that creates higher costs for homeowners, will prevail.”

Jeremy Leaf, north London estate agent and a former RICS residential chairman:

“Despite inevitable worries that the present geopolitical uncertainty will increase upward pressure on inflation and mortgage payments, we have seen no price reductions or withdrawals from agreed sales in our offices other than for property-related reasons.

“Most buyers are obviously nervous about the impact of the conflict, but are adopting a ‘wait-and-see’ stance for now at least.

“These figures from Rightmove reflect asking prices rather than sales values and determine whether genuine buyers are attracted, so may take a little longer to reflect any change in sentiment.

“Sellers should know confidence takes a long time to build but can disappear quite quickly, and the market continues to be price-sensitive, bearing in mind particularly high stock levels. However, sellers and buyers will be hoping the Bank of England keeps interest rates unchanged this week, and that activity will shortly resume the steady improvement seen at the beginning of 2026.”

Source: The Negotiator